How Long Does an Ammo Shortage Typically Last?

When there’s less of a resource to go around, it becomes more valuable. That’s the law of supply and demand, understood by everyone from world leaders negotiating trade deals to my dog hoarding treats behind my house. And while scarcity is a fact of life, it always sucks especially hard when it’s affecting you.

That’s the situation gun enthusiasts are finding themselves in today. After enduring some of the highest ammo prices anyone had ever seen in 2020 and 2021, it looked like the cost per round of popular cartridges like 223 and 9mm were finally falling.

But recent events have triggered another round of panic buying, and the market has responded again with elevated prices. Some self-styled gun gurus advocate stocking up now, while others say you should wait for prices to fall.

Which course of action should you take? To answer that question, let’s look at how long an ammo shortage can typically last.

Ammo Shortages and Factors Affecting Them

One thing anyone will notice after spending enough time in the world of firearms is that it’s easy to spook gun owners. Often, a single event can send gun owners around the country into a collective tizzy, buying up ammo like it’s toilet paper in March of 2020. Let’s look at some of the major events that have helped to dictate ammo prices over the last 10 years.

2012: Post-Sandy Hook and 2016 Election

One of the biggest instances of panic buying ammo in recent years happened after the 2012 Sandy Hook shooting. That was before I got into firearms, so I asked around to see what it was like back then.

I got an answer from a friend who works at an FFL in Colorado. They mentioned that after Sandy Hook, ammo prices remained elevated for 3-4 years. This graph appears to corroborate their experience, although they may have remembered the Sandy Hook and 2016 Election price bumps as part of the same event.

Graph courtesy of Reddit

For years, the Sandy Hook/2016 election spike remained the largest event dictating ammo pricing. And towards the end of 2019, it seemed as though ammo prices were finally getting back to normal. Then, perhaps one of the most impactful events in the history of the country decided to send ammo prices right back to the moon.

2020 COVID Pandemic and Election Season

2020 was a landmark year for firearms ownership in America. Thanks to widespread fears about the COVID-19 pandemic and a hotly-contested election, 2020 and 2021 saw more Americans buying guns than ever before, according to the FBI.

Both of those years saw over 10 million more background checks than previous years. That data implies that there were many new gun owners in 2020 and 2021, and all of those people were getting their first taste of panic buying ammo. With more buyers and less ammo to go around, prices skyrocketed. Just look at the data:

Price of 9mm over time

Price of 223 Remington over time

Price of 7.62x39 over time

The Russian Ammo Import Ban

One factor contributing to increased ammo costs that I don’t see many people talking about is the ban on Russian ammo. In August of 2021, the State Department announced that it would no longer allow US companies to import Russian-made ammunition. Nearly overnight, the price of 7.62x39 shot up from $0.40 per round to $0.56.

But 7.62x39 wasn’t the only cartridge that ballooned in price. Since Russia was the single largest exporter of small arms munitions to the USA, the Russian ammo ban also affected the price of cheap steel-cased .223 and 9mm stateside.

While the ban was set to expire at the end of 2023, you still won’t be seeing any Russian-made ammo making its way in the US anymore. The Russian ammo export ban, enacted by Putin earlier this year, means that the lack of Russian steel cased ammo in the US is likely permanent.

2023: Another Ammo Shortage?

Anyone you talk to will tell you that the world was weird in 2020 and 2021. But by 2022 and into 2023, things started seeming more “normal” again. The same was true of ammo

Fortunately, sources in the industry say that they don’t expect this ammo shortage to last long. My contact at a Colorado-based FFL said that they expect ammo prices to fall back to the levels we were seeing around September fairly soon.

The reason for that? It’s because current prices are based on a panic over nothing. As we reported previously, reports that Lake City Ammo Factory in Lake City, MO had canceled all its civilian orders. This sparked a wave of panic buying that caused ammo prices across the board to spike.

The Truth About Lake City Ammo Plant

However, this rumor turned out to be false. Lake City Ammo Plant itself responded on social media, claiming that its production was unaffected.

That seems like a bit of a technicality, though. The factory’s primary goal is to supply the US government, who’s currently hurting for ammo. Considering the military was already facing ammo shortages back in February thanks to the conflict in Ukraine, the eruption of a new war in the Middle East has only increased demand.

In other words, although Lake City’s production itself may not have decreased, the military’s necessities have. Since the factory’s primary mission is to supply the military, it’s begun siphoning off its supply of civilian ammunition. Other ammo manufacturers have stepped in to help supply the military, too, since they can make more money doing that than selling to the American public.

As of press time, the price of .223 is sitting around $0.41, up nearly $0.25 from where it was three weeks ago. Elevated prices haven’t been limited to 223, either. The next most popular intermediate rifle cartridge, 7.62x39 is also more expensive than it was before the Lake City rumors.

Looking Forward

So how long does an ammo shortage last? The answer is, as it is with most things, “it depends.”

Remember my source at the Colorado-based FFL? They said they expect to see ammo prices falling in the coming months. Unfortunately, that’s just in time for the gun industry’s biggest buying event: election season. We’ll see how ammo prices react as the future unfolds.